Manager, Forecasting and Modelling

2 weeks ago

Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand NZ Ministry of Education Full time
Predict the future to shape education system policy, investment and operational decision-making

Help shape the future of Education
He mea tārai e mātou te mātauranga kia rangatira ai, kia mana taurite ai ōna huanga
We work to shape an education system that delivers equitable and excellent outcomes

At Te Tāhuhu o te Mātauranga | Ministry of Education, we work to provide services and support nationally, regionally and locally to the education sector, and in some cases, directly to ākonga and whānau.

We shape the policies, settings and performance of the education system for early learning, schooling and tertiary.
We are making significant changes to how we deliver our purpose.

So that we:

  • Take practical action to give effect to te Tiriti o Waitangi.
  • Give priority to regional and local voice.
  • Deliver greater responsiveness, accessibility and integrated services and support.
  • Improve feedback loops and information flows.


Our organisation is made up of talented and committed people around Aotearoa, from a wide range of backgrounds and cultures.

While we work in different groups and on different things, we all strive every day to make the biggest difference we can for our ākonga in our education system.

Mō tēnei tūranga | About this role

The Manager, Forecasting and Modelling leads and manages a team that operates as a centre of expertise and excellence in forward-looking analysis to inform many of the most critical decisions taken by the Government and others in the education system.

The work is financially-focused, but requires an understanding of education system policy settings, dynamics and drivers in the external environment.


Key responsibilities include:

  • Delivering high quality forecasts of future public expenditure for large components of the $15 billion that the government invests annually in the schooling and early childhood education system;
  • Working with colleagues across Te Tāhuhu, Te Mahau and beyond on cutting-edge policy development, utilising our expertise in policy costing and impact analysis; and
  • Undertaking operational rate-setting and eligibility calculations, to ensure that schools and early learning services are appropriately funded.

The Manager's role is to lead, support and inspire the analysts in the team, to work with stakeholders across the Ministry to plan a work programme that aligns with the Ministry's vision and the Government's priorities, to oversee the effective and efficient delivery of work.

For more information on this position, please read through the attached Job Description.

Please note there is further information in the attached Job Description.

We also offer:

  • Flexible working arrangements where everyone feels valued & supported
  • The ability to purchase extra days leave
  • A range of employee network groups
  • An inclusive environment that encourages your personal cultural competency journey
  • Development and learning, including mentorship programmes and internal secondments
  • Wellness initiatives to support your overall health and wellbeing
Mōhou ake | About you

To thrive in this role you will hold a dual passion for:

  • The potential of evidence and analysis to contribute to better decisions that deliver equitable and excellent outcomes; and
  • The opportunity afforded to Managers to build and maintain positive and productive cultures and operating models that enable all team members to grow and succeed.
Managers in our group are expected to prioritise people leadership.

Your number one responsibility will be to actively support the development of staff members, and to foster a culture in which everyone's voice is heard and valued, wellbeing is paramount, and inclusive practices drive continuous improvement and high performance.

You will have an opportunity to contribute to our wider management cohort in leading the development of group strategy and improvement initiatives.

You will have a team of highly capable analysts to undertake the detailed number-crunching, but you will enjoy overseeing and guiding this work if you are highly numerate and comfortable dealing with financial information, can use strategic thinking and communication skills to build bridges between complementary political, technical and operational perspectives, and have a flair for coming up with innovative analytical approaches to novel challenges.

Detailed knowledge of forecasting and financial analysis is not a pre-requisite but would be a significant advantage.

Mātau rōpū ake | About our group, and team

Our Group, Te Pae Aronui | Operations and Integration helps drive a focus on equity throughout Te Tāhuhu by connecting across the Ministry and providing expert support and services into the regions.

We use our functions and capabilities collectively to shape and influence the direction of education in Aotearoa New Zealand by gathering insights, regulation, providing service design and delivery functions, and understanding ākonga and w

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